All The Prognosticators Were Wrong--Even Me!
N.O.A.A. along with all the T.V. weather personalities called for temperatures to fall dramatically into the sub-zero range. Well, that just did not happen. When I did the report last night it was partly cloudy, and it looked like things would remain clear enough for radiational cooling. The clouds, apparently, moved in much more quickly holding the temperature above 10°F in Wilton, Maine all night. Right now we have overcast skies, and it is not very bright. It looks like it is going to snow.
For today the N.W.S. forecasts mostly cloudy skies (94%/89%/84%/92%) with a chance of scattered light snow showers. The NEXRAD composite regional radar does not show any echoes from storms in the area. There are some in New York, but I am not sure they are moving in our direction. The Weather Underground model forecast map indicates that we are in for some stormy weather this afternoon and into this evening. This, according to the reports, is supposed to be a mainly (pardon the pun) Southern Maine Event with snow totals in the one foot range. Our area is only supposed to get a few inches. Remember the chance of a foot of flurries? This may be one of those events.
My Weather Stick is frowning just a little at the 72% relative humidity. All three of my electronic instruments are forecasting fair skies with rising barometric pressure. The barometric pressure has indeed risen since last night, but I do not expect that to hold for very long. The clouds belie changes in the offing. As noted above the low temperatures did not approach the forecast temperatures with the La Crosse Weather station recording 12.2°F, the Min/Max Thermometer recording 14.4°F and the remote weather station recording 17.1°F. I think we will see some snow flurries as this storm approaches with some heavier snow overnight. How much we get will depend on, as the prognosticators have said, where the secondary low forms. The closer it is to the coast the more snow we will have, and the farther from the coast the less snow we will have. I just do not know, but I will report what we get when it is over. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Low Temperature (°F): 12.2
Current Temperature (°F): 12.9
Relative Humidity: 72%
Dew Point (°F): 5.5
Heat Index (°F): N/A
Barometric Pressure (in Hg): 30.34
Wind Direction: Calm
Wind Speed (mph): 0.0
Wind-Chill (°F): 12.9
Precipitation (Type): None
Amount (Inches): 0.00
Cloud Cover (AM): Overcast
Cloud Type: Stratus
Weather Stick: Slightly Down
Comparative data for the overnight.
Temperature:10°F/12.7°F//5°F/12.7°F//2°F/12.5°F//-1°F/12.3°F
Relative Humidity: 63%/60%//83%/66%//87%/69%//100%/71%
As great a job as the N.W.S. did yesterday they did a poor job overnight. They had the 19:00 hour temperature and relative humidity correct, and missed the rest. Something must have happened to the speed of the system moving in to have created that large a discrepancy in their forecast. Maybe they will do better today.
Forecast data for today.
Temperature: -3°F/11°F/23°F/22°F.
Relative Humidity: 100%/80%/59%/60%
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